Football Betting Odds
Chicago, Spokane duel on NFL Network Friday
2010-07-23
This week’s Friday night NFL Network broadcast of the Arena Football League features Chicago visiting Spokane in a battle of division leaders in the National Conference. Both teams have clinched playoff spots, with the Shock having wrapped up the West Division as well. Spokane has clinched the top seed in the conference playoffs already, and has little to play for. Thanks to Rush QB Russ Michna being placed on IR Wednesday, bettors have seen the line climb from the Shock as 7-point favorites at opener to 10-points now, according to Sportsbook.com.
Chicago wraps up its season here and needs a win to maintain any chance at winning the Midwest Division over Milwaukee. The Iron have games remaining at Iowa and Cleveland, and with the way they have struggled on the road this season, Chicago has to like its chances. Still, taking care of business here first is job #1.
This will be the largest underdog pointspread that Chicago has faced all season long, and it is warranted only by the Shock’s success, not by the situation of what’s at stake for each team. Spokane has won 10 games in a row, including four at home, but is a modest 6-4 ATS during the stretch. Making matters even stranger in terms of the line, Spokane hasn’t been favored by this much over any team in two months when they were laying 13.5-points to lowly Utah.
Spokane does solid work on both sides of the football, scoring 62.6 PPG and allowing 52.1 PPG. Each of those figures represents the #2 ranking in the Arena Football League currently, behind Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, respectively. Chicago does its best work on offense through the air, as Michna was averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt, third in the league.
J.J. Ratternik will step in for Michna and is looking to make his Rush debut. He spent the 2009 season with the Quad City Steamwheelers playing in 10 games and finishing the season with 54 touchdowns and a 105.64 rating, so it isn’t like he is inexperienced with the AFL rules.
There is only one StatFox Power Trend worthy of significance heading into Friday night’s contest and it concerns Chicago’s troubles against good offensive teams:
• CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 55 or more points/game since 1996. The average score was CHICAGO 47.1, OPPONENT 57.1 - (Rating = 0*)
The problem with that angle, at this point, there’s no definitive word on how much Spokane’s coaching staff plans to utilize the services of quarterback Kyle Rowley or any of the other starters.
The StatFox Power Line shows Spokane should be favored by 14 points, but the Outplay Factor Rating indicates only 7.5 points prior to home field advantage. Considering that Chicago is a prominent 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS on the road (same SU mark as Spokane at home), it would be a stretch to figure that edge is 3-points or more.
Don’t be surprised to see a more motivated Chicago team come up big in front of a national TV audience at 8:00 PM ET.
NFL: Green Bay at Chicago (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-12-22
Green Bay’s feint playoff hopes were dashed in their loss to the Jaguars, now the Packers look to do the same to division rival Chicago when the teams square off on week 16 Monday Night Football. The Bears are a 5-point favorite and will be looking to not only keep their division title hopes alive, but avenge an ugly 37-3 loss up in Green Bay last month. At last check, 64% of bettors are backing the Packers.
Under HC Lovie Smith, Chicago is 12-3 ATS in revenge spots and 6-0 UNDER revenging a same season loss. In terms of matchup angles, Chicago is on a 6-0 ATS second half run vs. poor defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards/play. Green Bay is yielding 5.7 YPP, including 6.9 YPP over the L3 weeks. HC Mike McCarthy’s team boasts a 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS record in division games in ‘08, and 12-4 ATS overall in his tenure.
Who would’ve guessed Green Bay’s defense would struggle more than its offense in its first season without Brett Favre since 1992? The Packers are on pace to allow more than 400 points for first time since 1986, and in their nine defeats this season they’ve yielded an average of 24 points per game.
While many cheeseheads are still moaning about the trade of Favre to the Jets, they can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for what at best will be a 7-9 season. Rodgers has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards and 23 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. It all adds up to a quarterback rating better than 90, ranking him in the top 10 among those with at least 10 starts. He’s had eight multiple touchdown games and two multiple interception games. But it takes one hand to count how many times both Rodgers, and his defense, clicked in the same game. One of those was Nov. 16 when Green Bay blew out Chicago, 37-3, at Lambeau Field, creating a three-way tie atop the NFC North along with Minnesota. Rodgers completed 23 of 30 attempts for 227 yards and hooked up with Greg Jennings and Donald Lee for touchdowns, and the Packers defense allowed only 234 yards and a second-quarter field goal. They even scored without Rodgers on the field, with defensive end Jason Hunter returning a Kyle Orton fumble 54 yards for a touchdown.
The Packers are 0-4 since that victory, and the Bears are 3-1 since the loss. Chicago’s come-from-behind 27-24 overtime win over New Orleans at Soldier Field last Thursday night was clutch and kept alive its playoff hopes. After tying the game with two seconds left in regulation, Robbie Gould won it with a 35-yard field goal. At 8-6, head coach Lovie Smith’s team sits one game behind the Vikings in the race for the division crown.
The biggest red flag for the Bears in 2008 has been their pass defense, which was also a problem area a year ago. Chicago has allowed 3,271 yards through the air and rank ahead of only Kansas City, San Diego, the New York Jets and Seattle in the category.
In a few seasons this series will turn 90 years old. The Bears lead 89-80-6 and haven’t been swept by the Packers since 2003.
PREDICTION: The Bears should benefit from the extra three days of rest, as well as a third straight week being home, but they’ll need to perform a whole lot better than they did in the first meeting to get the job done. The Packers won’t lie down and will make it close. CHICAGO 20, GREEN BAY 17
NFL: Pro Bowl (4:30 PM ET – FOX)
2008-02-09
If you’re one of those football fanatics who just can’t enough, this Sunday’s Pro Bowl from Hawaii will at least offer you some solace from the post-Super Bowl emptiness. It will also give you one more shot to bet the sport you love so dearly.
Don’t despair too much though, as the 2008-2009 season will be back before you know it, and in the meantime, there’s still plenty of other action to be found. College & Pro basketball are in full swing, hockey is well into its second half of the season, and the Daytona 500 is right around the corner. We’re even less than a month away from the kickoff of the 21st season of Arena Football!
Plus, if you’re really into the NFL, you can get in on some of the futures odds already available for next season at Sportsbook.com. If you think you know who will win Super Bowl 43, put your money down on some potentially rewarding odds. Incidentally, Tom Brady and the Patriots are the early favorites.
Back to the Pro Bowl though. this is your last chance to back your favorite NFL stars in game action until August. While in truth, this game is an exhibition, don’t tell the players that, as the NFC & AFC battle for both bragging rights and a larger prize purse to the winner. As usual, the AFC is favored, by a field goal, and the total is set at about 63.
Early action on the game as of Friday finds 66% of the Sportsbook Betting Public backing the favored AFC bunch. Amazingly, the same number, 66%, find the UNDER to be the total of choice.
The key thing to watch for in any Pro Bowl game is which players have chosen to show up for the festivities. As usual, some of the biggest names on the rosters have decided to sit this one out. Among that group are Brady and WR Randy Moss of the Patriots and Packers’ QB Brett Favre. Therefore, the all important QB rotations should be:
AFC: 1) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis 2) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh 3) Derek Anderson, Cleveland
NFC: 1) Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle 2) Tony Romo, Dallas 3) Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay
The NFC has covered the spread in the last two games, despite losing a year ago 31-28. If you’re into totals and trends, the OVER could be your thing, and the last eight NFL all-star extravaganzas have produced 67.6 points per game.
Sign on to Sportsbook.com anytime between now and Sunday’s kickoff for game lines, totals, and some unique player props for the NFL’s season finale!
NFL - N.Y. Giants at Detroit
2007-11-19
Both New York and Detroit went into last Sunday’s games with a ton of momentum, both lost. Now with the teams going head-to-head, only one will win, and the other will further endanger its playoff outlook.
For the Lions, this starts a treacherous string of four games featuring matchups against the NFC’s top three teams. Fortunately, they’ve played well at home and all three key contests are at Ford Field. In ’07, Rod Marinelli’s team is 4-0 SU & 3-0 ATS as hosts. Keep an eye on this line throughout the week, as the original pointspread, Detroit -2.5, was quickly bet to NY -1 within the span of 24 hours. Also, with the total set at a lofty 50.5, note that HC Tom Coughlin’s Giants teams are 6-0 UNDER vs. good teams (Win Pct. 60-75%) in the second half.
The Giants have all the talent in the world on defense and have the commodities to match those efforts on offense. Keeping mistakes to a minimum is the key for young QB Eli Manning. Interceptions continue to plague his efforts, but the connection with WR Plaxico Burress and TE Jeremy Shockey has started to pay dividends. Add the surge of up-and-coming RB Brandon Jacobs and this team deserves respect as a rising star.
The Detroit Lions, like the team listed above, are built on youth and carry what may be the most prolific passing attack in the game today. Veteran QB Jon Kitna serves as their seasoned leader, but the return from injury of RB Kevin Jones may push this offense to their highest level of production. The defense is not nearly as impressive, but there are stars hidden in that roster and the ability to surprise is a viable concern for the opposition.
Keys to the Game – The pace of the schedule picks up for upstart Detroit, at least three of the next four are at Ford Field. The Jon Kitna led offense has come up with a running game thanks to Kevin Jones, which has cut down on turnovers and sacks. This will have to be the formula against Giants defense that has done 180-degree turn since first two games. The total of this game will give indication what direction this NFC encounter might go. Detroit is 35-15 ATS when they score 22 to 28 points. The football Giants are 14-4 ATS in away games when the total is 42 points or greater. Mental state will play a role with Giants off Cowboys contest and Lions hosting Green Bay on Thanksgiving.
Trends
N.Y. Giants are 10-2 ATS versus offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards a game
Detroit is 11-24 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
StatFox Pick – Giants win handily